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Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has announced that proposals for a ceasefire agreement negotiated with American diplomats could be completed in a matter of days. Afterward, American envoys are expected to submit the documentation to the Russian leadership.

Negotiations in Berlin Produce Major Headway, With Critical Obstacles Persist

Following extensive talks in Berlin, American negotiators reported on Monday that around “90%” of the contentious issues between Russia and Ukraine had been resolved. Although the outlook appears positive, the path to ending the war is not guaranteed, particularly because the Russian absence from the ongoing discussions.

Early Tuesday morning, Zelenskyy noted that the US Congress was anticipated to vote on security guarantees and that a finalised set of agreements might be ready “imminently.” Subsequently, the U.S. would engage in discussions with Russian representatives, potentially followed by high-level meetings possibly this weekend.

Defense Assurances and Allied Backing

“We are counting on five key agreements. Several pertain to binding security pledges: legally binding, that is, voted on and approved by the US Congress,” Zelenskyy commented to journalists. He clarified that these guarantees would “mirror the collective defense clause” of the Nato alliance.

Earlier, American representatives declined to give precise information regarding the probable makeup of the security package or what would happen if Moscow sought to capture more land following an agreement. They did, however, confirm that the United States has no plans to deploy troops on the ground in the country.

Leaders from the UK, France, Germany and several additional European countries issued a joint statement that troops from a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the regeneration of Ukrainian military capabilities, in securing Ukraine’s skies, and in supporting maritime security, potentially by conducting operations within its territory.”

They stopped short, however, of suggesting these measures would constitute guarantees equivalent to NATO's Article 5. In any case, there is little sign that Moscow is anywhere close to agreeing to the kind of arrangement under discussion between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Moscow's Stance and Territorial Dispute

The following day, the Russian government said it had not seen the details of the proposals on security assurances. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergey Ryabkov, declared that Russia would not agree to troops from NATO member states being stationed in Ukrainian territory “under any circumstances.”

The main sticking point between the Ukrainian team and their American counterparts continues to be the territorial question. One proposal centers on Ukraine ceding the parts of the Donbas region it still holds, while Ukraine prefers to maintain the current front lines. “Talks continue on the land dispute. You know, it is one of the key issues. Currently, there is no agreement on it yet,” the president remarked following the Berlin discussions.

The US negotiation team, headed by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, has suggested a compromise solution. This framework would see Ukrainian forces withdraw, but Russia would not advance, with the demilitarised area established as “an open economic area.” Moscow has indicated it could use police and national guard formations rather than the military in such an area, implying it would still seek to control the territory.

“Let me reiterate: a ‘free economic zone’ does not mean under the control of Moscow. Not legally or in practice do we accept the Donbas region – its temporarily occupied part – as belonging to Russia. Absolutely,” stated President Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Potential Outcomes

It is not clear how the two sides will resolve the territorial issue. Zelenskyy has previously suggested that a negotiated arrangement like a free economic zone could be theoretically possible if the citizens of Ukraine voted for it in a referendum. The critical stumbling block is likely to be when the proposals are put to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has shown no indication he is prepared to concede on his military objectives.

“If Putin rejects everything, we will end up with precisely the situation we are encountering on our flight right now – instability,” said Zelenskyy, recording the comments after his plane took off from Berlin.

“I am confident the United States will apply sanctions pressure and supply more weapons if they reject the deal. In my view, that would be a fair request from us to the United States,” he concluded.